slow without recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The job market data is very supportive of the idea that the economy can. In December, employers added a solid 223,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped back to 3.5%, matching a 53-year low. The slowdown in price increases suggests that the Fed’s seven rate hikes last year have had some effect, though with inflation still well above their 2% target, the officials have made clear they expect to raise their key rate by at least three-quarters of a point more.Įven as the central bank has jacked up its benchmark rate at the fastest pace in four decades, the economy has kept growing and businesses have kept hiring. Congress may also struggle to raise the debt ceiling by this summer, which could cause economic turmoil, or a deep recession if they fail to do so.īut for now, a soft-landing scenario is beginning to play out. gas prices up again.Īnd while layoffs remain historically low outside of technology companies, that trend could reverse if businesses become anxious again about the economic outlook. As China’s economy reopens from its COVID-19 lockdowns, it may start to absorb more of the world’s oil supply. “The sooner the inflation rate falls,” Blinder said, “the sooner the Fed will ease up, and therefore the less the chance of a recession.”Īll that said, there are plenty of threats to a soft landing. Online prices have fallen for four straight months from year-ago levels, according to Adobe Analytics, particularly for computers, toys and sporting goods. In the meantime, consumers are spending less, forcing many retailers to cut prices to pare their inventories of goods. Furniture prices have dropped for three straight months. Clothing prices have declined in two of the past three months. They’re now 3% cheaper than they were a year ago. Average used car prices, which skyrocketed 37% in 2021, have dropped for five straight months. The national average price of a gallon of gas was $3.27 on Wednesday, far below the $5 peak in mid-June.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |